NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be an above-average season.
The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season will produce an above-average amount of tropical activity. For the sixth time in a row, forecasters say this year’s season will be above average.
I would call that six too many.
When you consider last year’s season, that really says something.
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, after all, holds the record as the busiest one on record. It produced 30 named storms, 14 of which became hurricanes. It also tied the record for the highest number of “major” hurricanes with seven of them. NOAA defines a “major hurricane” as Category 3 or higher.
You’ll also remember it was only the second season to stretch into the Greek alphabet for storm names! Months ago, the World Meteorological Organization declared it would no longer use Greek letters. So that takes care of that, at least.
But after the very busy 2020, hearing the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season should be another busy one doesn’t feel comforting.
So let’s look at what they predict.
The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast
First, let’s consider an “average” season. An average hurricane season includes 14 named storms. Not hurricanes — just named storms. An average season typically produces seven hurricanes, three of which develop into major hurricanes.
Again, to reach that “major hurricane” status, the storm would have to reach wind speeds of 115mph or higher.
If I have to deal with a storm, I’d just as soon face a minor one.
For 2021, NOAA predicts between 13 and 20 named storms. They predict between six to 10 of them will develop into hurricanes. And, they say, three to five of those six to 10 could become major storms.
I don’t want to sound like I’m paranoid about hurricanes, although I am. I just remind myself that it only takes one bad storm — no matter how many form — to turn lives upside down. Hurricane Hugo reminded South Carolina of that in 1989.
Wouldn’t it be nice if all of 2021’s storms just stayed out at sea?
By the way, in case you’re interested, here’s the list of this year’s official hurricane names:
If we make it through Wanda, we’ll then move to a shorter list of alternate names set aside for busy seasons.
Here’s to not even making it through the list to begin with!